Libaka tse Chesang tsa Haufinyane ho Li-Transformer tsa Lefatše tse Mahareng le tse Phahameng tsa Voltage (2025-2026)

1. Ntlafatso ea Maemo a Tshebetso e Botle ea Matla le Phetoho e Tala: Phetoho e Ncha ea Matla e le Motheo​

Lefatšeng ka bophara, litlhoko tsa tšebeliso e ntle ea matla a mahareng le a mahareng Transformer ea Motlakase o PhahamengHo ntse ho eketseha ka potlako, 'me khaello ea litekanyetso tsa ts'ebeliso e ntle ea matla lehlakoreng le lecha la tlhahiso ea matla e fetohile ntlha ea bohlokoa lilemong tsa morao tjena. Ka Mmesa 2024, Chaena e ntšitse mofuta o mocha oa Litekanyetso tse Lumellehang tsa Bokhoni ba Matla le Mekhahlelo ea Ts'ebeliso e Ntle ea Matla bakeng sa Li-Transformer tsa Matla (GB20052-2024), e ileng ea kenngoa tšebetsong semmuso ka Hlakola 2025. Ka lekhetlo la pele, tekanyetso ena e kenyelletsa li-transformer tsa 6kV-66kV bakeng sa tlhahiso e ncha ea matla (photovoltaic, matla a moea, polokelo ea matla) melaong e tlamang ea ts'ebeliso e ntle ea matla, e akaretsang maemo a motlakase a mantlha bakeng sa khokahano e ncha ea gridi ea matla (mohlala, li-transformer tsa 35kV tse qoelitsoeng ka oli/mofuta o omileng li etsa karolo e fetang 95% ea lits'ebetso lefapheng le lecha la matla).

Sepheo sa mantlha sa ntlafatso e tloaelehileng ke ho fokotsa tahlehelo ea phetiso e bakoang ke eneji e ncha. Ha re nka li-transformer tse qoelitsoeng ka oli tsa 35kV mohlala, tahlehelo ea tšebeliso ea eneji ea Kereiti ea 3 e se nang mojaro tlas'a maemo a macha e fokotsehile ka 30% ha e bapisoa le mofuta oa khale (GB6451-2015), 'me ts'ebeliso ea eneji ea Kereiti ea 1 e fokotsehile ka 10% e 'ngoe; tahlehelo ea li-transformer tsa mofuta o omileng tsa 35kV e se nang mojaro e fokotsehile ka 20% ha e bapisoa le maemo a indasteri (NB/T31062-2014). Ho ea ka likhakanyo, haeba li-transformer tsohle tse ncha tsa eneji Chaena li ka ntlafatsoa ho tloha sehlopheng sa S11 ho ea sehlopheng sa S20, mesi e tsoang ka khabone e ka fokotsoa ka lithane tse limilione tse 55, e lekanang le makhetlo a 2.8 ho feta tlhahiso ea motlakase ea Seteishene sa Metsi sa Gezhouba ka 2021.

Ho kenngwa tshebetsong hona ho tloaelehileng ha ho kgothalletse feela phetoho ya indasteri ya transformer ya Chaena ho ya ho bokgoni bo phahameng le khabone e tlase​ empa hape ho fana ka moralo wa bohlokwa wa tshupiso ya bokgoni bo botle ba eneji bakeng sa kgokelo ya gridi ya eneji e ntjha ya lefatshe.

1. Smart Grid le AI e Tsamaiswang ke Tlhokahalo: Li-Transformer tsa Maemo a Tiileng (SST) li Fetoha Motheo oa Moloko o Latelang​

Ka ho phatloha ha matla a khomphutha a AI (mohlala, ho koetlisa mehlala e meholo ea ChatGPT ho ja motlakase o lekaneng ka matsatsi a mararo joalo ka likoloi tse 3,000 tsa Tesla tse tsamaeang lik'hilomithara tse 320,000) le ho potlaka ha kaho ea gridi e bohlale, li-transformer tsa setso ha li sa khona ho fihlela litlhoko tsa matla a mangata le taolo e matla. Li-transformer tsa boemo bo tiileng (SSTs), ka melemo ea tsona ea boholo bo bonyenyane, bokhoni bo phahameng, le tšehetso ea phallo ea matla a mahlakoreng a mabeli, e se e le sepheo sa morao tjena sa lipatlisiso tsa theknoloji le tlhokomelo ea 'maraka.

Li-SST li sebelisa theknoloji ea phetoho ea elektroniki ea matla a maqhubu a phahameng. Ha li bapisoa le li-transformer tsa setso tsa maqhubu a indasteri, li fokotsa bophahamo ba modumo ka 50%-80% le boima ka 60%-80%, 'me li ka fihlella taolo ea motlakase o matla oa boemo ba millisecond le tlhahiso ea motlakase o sa fetoheng, e leng se etsang hore li tšoanelehe haholo bakeng sa maemo a kang litsi tsa data tsa AI, khokahano e ncha ea gridi ea matla, le liteishene tsa ho tjhaja ka potlako e phahameng. Mohlala, pampiri e tšoeu ea morao-rao ea NVIDIA e thathamisa li-SST e le tharollo e khethiloeng bakeng sa phepelo e tobileng ea motlakase o mahareng litsing tsa data, 'me lik'hamphani tse kang Jinpan Technology li phethetse nts'etsopele ea mehlala ea SST mme li rometse lisampole ho NVIDIA.

Leha di-SST di ntse di le mokgahlelong wa netefatso ya mohlala/dihlopha tse nyane (ho lebelletswe hore di rekiswe ka tekanyo e kgolo ho tloha ka 2028 ho isa ho 2030), ditebello tsa mmaraka di hodimo—Tlaleho ya dipatlisiso ya Guangda Securities e bontsha hore di-SST di lebelletswe ho ba katleho e kgolo mathateng a matla a kgannwang ke mabili a mabedi a "AI + eneji e ntjha," ka boholo ba mmaraka bo holang ho tloha ho di-yuan tse dibilione tse 6 ka 2024 ho isa ho di-yuan tse dibilione tse 26.4 ka 2027 (CAGR ya hoo e ka bang 64%).

1. Khaello ea Phepelo ea Lefatše le Melemo ea Chaena: Taolo e Ikemetseng ea Ketane e Felletseng ea Indasteri e Fetoha Tlholisano ea Bohlokoa​

Lefatšeng ka bophara, li-transformer tsa motlakase o mahareng le o phahameng li tobane le khaello e kholo ea phepelo: sekheo sa phepelo bakeng sa li-transformer tsa motlakase United States se eketsehile ka 116% ha se bapisoa le 2019, ntlafatso ea gridi ea Europe e ntse e tsoela pele butle ka lebaka la khaello ea li-transformer, 'me merero e meholo ea letsatsi India ha e sebetse ha ho ntse ho emetsoe li-transformer. Khahlanong le semelo sena, Chaena, e nang le 60% ea bokhoni ba tlhahiso ea lefats'e, e fetohile mojalefa o moholo ka ho fetisisa.

Melemo ea mantlha ea Chaena ho li-transformer e ho taolo e ikemetseng ea indasteri e felletseng:

Lisebelisoa tsa Bohlokoa: Tlhahiso ea tšepe ea silicon (e leng "pelo" ea li-transformer) e fihlile ho lithane tse limilione tse 3.0325 (2024), e leng makhetlo a mahlano ho feta Japane le makhetlo a robeli ho feta United States. Baosteel Group e hahile mohala o le mong feela oa lefats'e oa tlhahiso ea tšepe ea silicon ea 0.18mm e tšesaane haholo, ka ts'ebetso e phahameng lefatšeng;

Theknoloji le Bokgoni: Sehlopha sa Disebediswa tsa Motlakase sa China se kopantse dikgwebo tse kang XD, Baobian, le Shandong Electrical Engineering ho theha mefuta e felletseng ya bokgoni ba "UHV + matla a matjha". Dikgwebo tsa poraefete tse kang Xinjiang Tebian le Jiangsu Huapeng di etella pele lefatshe ka ho romela thepa e ntjha ya transfoma ya eneji kantle ho naha;

Bokgoni ba ho Romela: Potoloho ya ho romela thepa ya transformer ya China (mohlala, dikgwedi tse 10 bakeng sa ditransformer tse kgolo tsa UHV) e kgutshwane haholo ho feta ya Europe le United States (dikgwedi tse fetang 18), mme ditjeo di tlase (dihlahiswa tse nang le tlhaloso e tshwanang ke halofo ya theko ya tsa Yuropa le Amerika).

Ho tloha ka Pherekhong ho isa Phato 2025, boleng ba thepa e romelloang kantle ho naha ea China bo fihlile ho li-yuan tse libilione tse 29.711, e leng keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 36.3%, 'maraka oa Europe o ntse o nyoloha ka 138%. Bareki ba bang ba ikemiselitse ho lefa premium ea 20% ho netefatsa phepelo.

1. Lintlafatso tsa Theknoloji le Ntlafatso ea Liindasteri: UHV le Matla a Moea a Offshore e le Libaka tsa Bohlokoa​

Haufinyane tjena, likhoebo tsa Chaena li fihletse katleho e kholo ea theknoloji masimong a UHV le matla a moea a lebōpong la leoatle le masimong a mang a transformer a mahareng le a motlakase o phahameng a maemo a holimo, li khothaletsa ntlafatso ea indasteri:

Li-Transformer tsa UHV: Transformer ea ±800kV UHV DC ea Shenbian e sebelisitsoeng morerong oa Jinshang-Hubei UHV e ntlafatsa maemo a ho thibela motlakase lehlakoreng la marang-rang ka 5%; Transformer ea jenereithara ea 1000kV UHV ea Xidian Xibian e netefatsa ts'ebetso ea nako ea merero ea motlakase e sebelisoang ka mashala a limilione tse likete;

Li-Transformer tsa Matla a Moea tse Tsoang Leoatleng: Khamphani ea Shenbian e qalile transformer ea pele ea lefats'e ea matla a moea a tsoang leoatleng a 20Hz, e ikamahantseng le li-grid tse tenyetsehang tse tsamaeang butle, e fokotsa tahlehelo ea phetisetso ka 15%-20%, 'me ea sebelisoa polasing ea moea ea Huaene Yuhuan Phase II;

Li-Transformer tse Bohlale: Khamphani ea Lisebelisoa tsa Boenjiniere ba Motlakase ea Shandong e thehile transformer e nyane e kobehileng ka makhetlo a mararo ea 220kV, e fokotsang tšebeliso ea tšepe ka ntlafatso ea sebopeho (mohlala, sebopeho sa matlafatso ea poleiti ea tanka) le ho ntlafatsa katleho ea kopano ka 35%, ka maemo a ts'ebeliso ea matla a fetang maemo a naha.

1. Moruo o Potolohileng le Tlhahiso-bocha: Tsela e Ncha ea Phetoho e Tala​

Ka tsoelo-pele ea leano la "khabone e habeli", tlhahiso-bocha ea li-transformer e fetohile sebaka se secha se hohelang indastering. TBEA (Hunan) Energy Construction Co., Ltd. e sebelisa ho kenngoa ha "methapo ea dijithale" (li-chip tse bohlale tsa ho lemoha) le "tsosoloso ea litho" (ntlafatso ea ho kenya li-coil, ho kenya oli e tebileng dialysis) ho fetola li-transformer tsa 220kV tse sa sebetseng hore e be lisebelisoa tse nang le ts'ebeliso e ntle ea matla e fetang maemo a naha a Kereiti ea 1. Litšenyehelo ke 60% feela ea lihlahisoa tse ncha, 'me yuniti e le' ngoe e entsoeng bocha e ka boloka 70% ea litšenyehelo tsa theko le ho khutlisa nako ea bohlokoa ea kaho.

Mohlala ona ha o fokotse feela litšenyehelo tsa ntlafatso ea gridi empa hape o fokotsa tšenyo ea mehloli—ho ea ka likhakanyo, phokotso ea khabone e tsoang setsing sa tlhahiso-bocha e lekana le ho lema lihekthere tse likete tsa meru, e tsamaellanang le tataiso ea nts'etsopele ea "moruo o chitja".